For most sports and golf fans, the season effectively ended last week after The 154th Open Championship, golf’s final major of the year. However, there are no weeks off for us golf-betting degenerates, and the money won at this week’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, is still green.
TPC Twin Cities is a classic Midwest birdie-fest designed by Arnold Palmer, where low scores are mandatory. With water hazards lurking on 15 holes, driving accuracy and precise iron play are crucial. While the bentgrass greens are gentle, spraying off the tee guarantees a fast ticket home.
Somehow, 3M convinced World No. 1 to fly from England to Minnesota, where he will make his tournament debut. Maybe Scottie wants to break out of his slump; after all, he hasn’t won since the first event of the season: The American Express. Or perhaps 3M just made Scheffler an offer he couldn’t refuse.
Like Scottie, I’ve only hit one outright this season, and I’m hoping for better luck in Minnesota this week. Despite Scheffler cashing a top-five bet for me at last week’s British Open, I still lost 2.52 units (u), bringing my 2026 PGA TOUR balance to -53.52u. All this means is that I’m due. Without further ado, here are my horses for the course for TPC Twin Cities.
3M Open 2026 bet slip
The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.
ð¯ðµ Hideki Matsuyama +3604 at Polymarket (0.55u) and Top-10 with ties +295 at Kalshi (0.5u)
ðºð¸ Ben Kohles +7400 (0.27u) and Top-20 with ties +225 (0.5u), both at DraftKings
ð©ð° Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +7884 at Polymarket (0.25u) and Top-20 with ties +252 at Kalshi (0.5u)
ð¿ð¦ Casey Jarvis +8233 (0.24u) at Polymarket and Top-20 with ties +239 at DraftKings (0.5u)
ð¦ð· Emiliano Grillo +10000 at DraftKings (0.2u) and Top-20 with ties +310 at Kalshi (0.5u)
The bottom line is Hideki is by far the second-best player in this field and his odds should be below +2000. He has been all over the place with his driver this season. Still, he has gained strokes on the field in driving accuracy in three straight starts: U.S. Open (major), the Travelers Championship (“signature event”) and The Open Championship (major).
Matsuyamas TPC Twin Cities record is nothing to brag about â T7 in 2019, withdrew in 2022 and T30 in 2023 â but at least he has experience here. There are plenty of birdie opportunities at TPC Twin Cities, as long as you dont hit into one of the many bodies of water, and these greens are easy. Hideki has gained strokes putting in five of his last six starts, per DataGolf.com, and three of the four majors this year (, PGA Championship, British Open).
Believe it or not, this winless jabroni is first in my model at Bet The Number. Granted, driving accuracy and iron play are my two most important skills for my 3M Open model, and Kohles leads the field in driving accuracy over the last 40 rounds and ranks second in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach. Yet, its still ridiculous to see him ahead of Scottie.
Nevertheless, Kohles ranks 19th in this field for SG: Putting over the last 12 rounds, per Bet The Number, which is his biggest weakness. He couldve, shouldve won the 2026 John Deere Classic a few weeks ago but choked it away with a double bogey on the final hole to finish T3.
That said, I’m choosing to look at that as a good thing because he got into contention, and you need to be in it to win it. Lastly, a lot of longshots have won the 3M Open and Kohles game fits TPC Twin Cities, making anything above +6000 a “good number.”
A prodigious driver, Rasmus has gained strokes off-the-tee in 12 consecutive starts, per DataGolf.com, including The Masters, PGA C
