The Iran war has understandably been the focus of international attention. But Russias war against Ukraine continues to rage, and there are signs of a positive shift in the Trump administrations approach to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President had a positive meeting at the G7 summit in France, and afterward Trump said, “Russia needs to make a deal.”
Trump also said sanctions on Russian oil can go back on now that the Strait of Hormuz may soon see more ships traverse safely. Right before he left for France, Trump welcomed Ukrainian Oleksandr Usyk, the reigning heavyweight champion of the world, into the Oval Office ahead of the UFC fight on his birthday.
Secretary of State told Congress Russias invasion of Ukraine was a “strategic disaster.” Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the U.S. will “find a way” to help Ukraine defend itself, and Ambassador Dan Negrea representing the United States told the United Nations that, “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a strategic disaster” and “Moscow cannot achieve its goals on the battlefield.”
The cause of this recent shift is likely twofold. First, Zelenskyy visited Gulf states during Operation Epic Fury to offer to help defend against Iranian Shahed , the same ones that Russia fires on Ukraine. The boldness and timing of the visit were a compelling advertisement for what Ukraine can offer the United States and its allies in modern warfare against the China-Russia-North Korea-Iran alignment.
And second, Ukraine is making battlefield gains, holding off Russian advances, and even incrementally taking back territory. Ukraine has the momentum and is an asset to its allies in the democratic world. Trump loves a team player and a winner â Ukraine is both.
But Ukrainian gains carry risks. When Ukraine makes progress on the battlefield, Russia often threatens NATO to pressure members to slow or stop support for Kyiv. Russia did this when Ukraine had the momentum in June 2024 and in November 2024 when Ukraine began to successfully strike military targets deep inside Russia.
It is essential right now for the Trump administration to show a commitment to NATO to deter further Russian aggression and compel Moscow to finally abide by a ceasefire. U.S. credible commitments can signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he cannot coerce the U.S. and its NATO allies to relax support to Ukraine and that the risks of threatening NATO are far too great.
And deterring Putin will ensure Europeans can safely continue to provide the bulk of Ukrainian weapons by purchasing them from American companies. A strong U.S. commitment to NATO may be the most likely way to achieve a ceasefire along the current lines of contact. It would be a great diplomatic achievement for Trump.
But if the Trump administration weakens NATO by withdrawing U.S. forces, stopping key weapons deliveries to Europeans who are willing to buy them, and canceling deployment of a U.S. weapon system out of fear of “provoking” Russia, it courts disaster.
This is why it is alarming that, according to media reports, a staffer in the Department of War recently told NATO allies that the United States will be significantly reducing the number of strategic bombers, fighter jets, drones, submarines and warships dedicated to NATO.
This is a departure from Trumps commitment after the when he said of the alliance, “Its not a rip-off, and were here to help them” touting the indispensable role the United States still has in the alliance.
This report follows similar news of the s decision to remove 5,000 American troops from Germany and to cancel its deployment of long-range strike weapons to the country. It also follows the cancellation of a rotational brigade in Romania, and the cancellation (and subsequent reversal upon Trumps intervention) of a deployment of additional U.S. troops to Poland.
The Biden administrations reactions to Russian threats
